(Credit: Canva)  

6 January 2026 –– The long-running standoff between the United States and Venezuela sharply escalated this week when United States (US) forces launched airstrikes across northern Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro, drawing global attention and shaking investors’ confidence. 

How the Crisis Unfolded 

According to CNA, US President Donald Trump said on Saturday (3 January 2026) that American forces had captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro following what he described as a “large-scale strike” on the South American country. 

“The United States of America has successfully carried out a large-scale strike against Venezuela and its leader, President Nicolás Maduro, who has been, along with his wife, captured and flown out of the country,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. 

Despite these assertions, US has faced widespread condemnation for a “crime of aggression” in Venezuela at an emergency meeting of the United Nations security council. Several nations condemned the intervention as a violation of Venezuela sovereignty and international law.  

Russia and China, both permanent security council members, were less restrained and called on the US to immediately release Maduro and Flores. Vasily Nebenzya, Moscow’s ambassador, described the intervention as “a turn back to the era of lawlessness” and urged the 15-member council to reject the methods of US military foreign policy, according to The Guardian.  

China’s Strategic Stakes in Venezuela 

Beyond US and Venezuela relations, the crisis also carries significant implications for China, which has spent the past decade building deep economic and energy ties with Caracas, the capital of Venezuela.  

According to The Business Times, in 2025, China imported nearly 389,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan oil, roughly 4% of its seaborne crude imports, with independent “teapot” refiners especially reliant on this discounted heavy crude supply.  

However, analysts say recent US actions, including the redirection of Venezuelan exports have effectively curtailed this flow to China, forcing refiners to seek alternatives such as Iranian and Russian crude.  

With Venezuelan loadings to Asia halted since early January, the disruption underscores how control over Venezuelan oil exports can influence China’s energy supply dynamics and adds another dimension to the broader US–China strategic rivalry over energy access and market share. 

Expert Insights: Markets React with Caution 

Global investors are facing a fresh surge in geopolitical risk after the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, although initial market reaction has been relatively devoid of nerves with oil volatile and safe-haven flows lifting gold. Stocks rose, buoyed by tech and defence sectors while the dollar advanced on Monday, according to Reuters.  

Gary Tan, Portfolio Manager at Allspring Global Investments Singapore, said he does not expect developments in Venezuela to trigger any meaningful shift in China–Taiwan dynamics. 

“On the geopolitical front, we do not anticipate a meaningful shift in China–Taiwan dynamics as a result of developments in Venezuela. At this stage, Asian policymakers are more likely to view US engagement in Latin America as a regional strategy rather than a signal of reduced US commitment in Asia.” 

Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo in Singapore, said geopolitical risks have increasingly become a structural feature of markets rather than a source of surprise. 

“We’re in a regime where geopolitics has become a persistent feature, not a surprise. Unless it threatens the broader supply chain, investors tend to fade the first shock and rotate back to rates, earnings, and positioning. This is more geopolitical shock than oil shock for now.” 

Steve Tunstall, who has over 30 years of experience in risk management, said the episode reflects a broader strategic pattern and expects such interventions to continue.  

He views the capture and extraction of President Nicolás Maduro, along with the removal of Venezuela as Cuba’s mainland foothold in South America, as part of the Trump administration’s aggressive re-adoption of the Monroe Doctrine — a direction explicitly outlined in the White House National Security Strategy released in November 2025. 

Steve added that a key strategic consequence of the intervention is the potential dismantling of the long-term oil agreement between China and Venezuela, which, if fully implemented, would have redirected up to 90& of Venezuela’s oil production to Chinese refineries rather than those based in Texas. 

“There is no doubt the interventions and annexations will continue. Next up will likely be Greenland as the strategic significance of controlling the polar over flight space as well as the untapped minerals is arguably even more significant than Venezuela,” he said. 

Conclusion: A Fragile Equilibrium 

The capture of Venezuela’s president marks one of the most significant escalations in US–Venezuela relations in decades, with implications reaching far beyond Latin America. While initial market reactions have been relatively contained, the episode highlights how quickly geopolitical events can alter global risk dynamics. 

For organisations and risk managers, the focus will be on whether this remains a short-term shock or develops into a broader strategic risk. Control over energy flows, shifting geopolitical alignments and heightened great-power competition point to increased uncertainty, with potential implications for supply chains, energy markets and geopolitical assumptions.